Kerala Monsoon Onset Delayed Again, IMD Revises Forecast

The eagerly awaited southwest monsoon has once again postponed its arrival over Kerala, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Latest model runs suggest that strong upper-level winds, crucial for a robust onset, will only establish after June 5–6.

This delay means Kerala is likely to witness a subdued start to the monsoon season, with rainfall intensifying gradually in the days ahead. The IMD had initially forecast the onset around May 26, later revising it to June 2–4. However, cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal weakened the monsoon wind flow, pushing the timeline further.

For the IMD to officially declare monsoon onset, three conditions must be met: sustained rainfall across 60% of Kerala’s weather stations, westerly winds of a certain speed over the Arabian Sea, and adequate cloud cover. While rainfall and cloud cover are currently sufficient, the westerly winds remain below threshold.

Adding to concerns, the IMD has downgraded its seasonal rainfall forecast from 92% to 90% of the long-period average, citing emerging El Niño conditions in the Pacific. This raises questions about the overall strength of the monsoon, which is vital for agriculture, reservoir levels, and relief from the ongoing heatwaves across northern and central India.

Farmers preparing for the sowing season are closely watching developments, as timely rains are critical for crop planning. While pre-monsoon showers have already touched parts of Kerala, experts caution that the full seasonal push may take several more days to build.