IMF Forecasts 6.6% Growth for India in 2025 Despite US Tariffs
India is poised to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a 6.6% GDP growth rate.
The latest World Economic Outlook highlights India’s domestic resilience in the face of rising US tariffs and global trade tensions.
The IMF attributes the robust forecast to strong Q1 performance, which helped offset export pressures. Although the figure is 0.2 percentage points lower than pre-tariff estimates, India’s growth is expected to surpass China’s projected 4.8%, reinforcing its role as Asia’s economic engine.
The Fund also revised India’s 2026 growth outlook to 6.2%, citing potential global headwinds and a tapering of early-year momentum.
Domestically, India recorded 6.5% real GDP growth in 2024–25. The government remains optimistic, maintaining a 2025–26 forecast of 6.3–6.8%, driven by infrastructure spending and resilient consumption.
Economists expect private investment and services exports to stay strong, though manufacturing may face short-term challenges.
Globally, the IMF projects 3.2% growth in 2025, with advanced economies averaging 1.6% and emerging markets at 4.2%. The US is expected to grow at 1.9%, down from 2.4% in 2024, while Spain leads advanced economies with a 2.9% forecast.
The IMF cautions that rising protectionism and prolonged uncertainty could hinder recovery. It urges nations to rebuild fiscal buffers, preserve central bank independence, and accelerate structural reforms to ensure long-term stability.
